韦氏观察

作者：英国《金融时报》首席经济评论员 马丁•沃尔夫
THE GRASSHOPPERS AND THE ANTS – A CONTEMPORARY FABLE
西方人都知道蚱蜢和蚂蚁的寓言故事。蚱蜢很懒，在整个夏天唱歌玩乐，而蚂蚁则忙着储藏粮食，为冬天做准备。当寒冷的冬季来临时，蚱蜢向蚂蚁乞要食物，蚂蚁拒绝，最后蚱蜢饿死了。这则故事的寓意是什么？好吃懒做只能喝西北风。

然而生活比伊索寓言更复杂。如今，蚂蚁是德国人、中国人和日本人，而蚱蜢是美国人、英国人、希腊人、爱尔兰人和西班牙人。蚂蚁生产出蚱蜢想要购买的有吸引力的商品。当后者询问前者是否想要什么东西作为交换时，蚂蚁回答道：“不，你们没有任何我们想要的东西，或许除了海边的度假胜地。我们会借给你们钱，这样你们获得了商品，而我们增加了积累。”

蚂蚁和蚱蜢是快乐的。蚂蚁节俭而谨慎，它们把盈余收入存进据信安全的银行里，而这些银行再把钱借给蚱蜢。相应地，后者不再需要生产商品，因为蚂蚁供应了非常廉价的商品。但蚂蚁不向它们出售房屋、购物中心或办公室，因此蚱蜢专注于建造这些建筑物。它们甚至请蚂蚁前来从事这些建造工作。蚱蜢发现，随着资金不断流入，土地价格上涨。因此它们更多地借贷、更多地建造房屋，并更多地支出。

蚂蚁看着蚱蜢窝的繁荣景象，告诉自己的银行家：“更多地借钱给蚱蜢，因为我们蚂蚁不想借钱。”蚂蚁在制造实体产品方面的能力远甚于评估金融产品的能力，因此蚱蜢找到了巧妙的办法，将蚱蜢的贷款打包成面向蚂蚁银行的有吸引力的资产。

Everybody in the west knows the fable of the grasshopper and the ant. The grasshopper is lazy and sings away the summer, while the ant piles up stores for the winter. When the cold weather comes, the grasshopper begs the ant for food. The ant refuses and the grasshopper starves. The moral of this story? Idleness brings want.

Yet life is more complex than in Aesop’s fable. Today, the ants are Germans, Chinese and Japanese, while the grasshoppers are American, British, Greek, Irish and Spanish. Ants produce enticing goods grasshoppers want to buy. The latter ask whether the former want something in return. “No,” reply the ants. “You do not have anything we want, except, maybe, a spot by the sea. We will lend you the money. That way, you enjoy our goods and we accumulate stores.”

Ants and grasshoppers are happy. Being frugal and cautious, the ants deposit their surplus earnings in supposedly safe banks, which relend to grasshoppers. The latter, in turn, no longer need to make goods, since ants supply them so cheaply. But ants do not sell them houses, shopping malls or offices. So grasshoppers make these, instead. They even ask ants to come and do the work. Grasshoppers find that with all the money flowing in, the price of land rises. So they borrow more, build more and spend more.

The ants look at the prosperity of grasshopper colonies and tell their bankers: “Lend even more to grasshoppers, since we ants do not want to borrow.” Ants are far better at making real products than at assessing financial ones. So grasshoppers discover clever ways of packaging their grasshopper loans into enticing assets for ant banks.

目前，德国蚁巢与一些小型的蚱蜢窝非常接近。德国蚂蚁表示：“我们希望成为朋友。那么我们为何不全都使用同一种货币呢？但是，你们首先必须承诺永远像蚂蚁一样行事。”因此蚱蜢们不得不通过一项测试：几年内像蚂蚁一样行事。蚱蜢们通过了测试，随后获准采用欧洲单一货币。

一段时期内，所有人都幸福地生活着。德国蚂蚁看着向蚱蜢提供的贷款，感觉很富有。与此同时，在蚱蜢窝，政府看着自己稳健的账户说：“瞧，在遵守财政规则方面，我们比蚂蚁做得还要好。”蚂蚁发现这令人尴尬。因此它们对蚱蜢窝内的下列事实缄口不言：工资和物价快速上涨，这使得商品更加昂贵，同时降低了利息的实际负担，从而鼓励了更多的借贷和建造。

聪明的德国蚂蚁虽然沮丧，但坚称，“树不会长到天上去”。蚱蜢窝的土地价格最终见顶。蚂蚁银行随即变得不安起来，要求蚱蜢偿还资金。因此蚱蜢债务人被迫出售资产，这导致了一连串的破产。它还导致蚱蜢窝停止了建筑活动，并使得蚱蜢不再掏钱购买蚂蚁商品。蚱蜢窝和蚁巢两边的工作岗位消失，财政赤字飙升，尤其是在蚱蜢窝。

德国蚂蚁意识到，它们积累的财富不再很值钱了，因为除了阳光下的廉价住宅，蚱蜢不能提供它们想要的任何东西。蚂蚁银行要么不得不注销不良贷款，要么必须说服蚂蚁政府向蚱蜢窝提供更多的蚂蚁资金。蚂蚁政府害怕承认自己让银行损失了蚂蚁资金。因此它们选择了称为“纾困”的第二种做法。与此同时，它们要求蚱蜢窝政府增税和削减支出。现在，它们称，你们必须真正像蚂蚁那样行事。因此蚱蜢窝陷入了严重的衰退。但蚱蜢仍然不能生产蚂蚁想要购买的任何东西，因为它们不知道怎么做。既然蚱蜢不再可以借钱购买蚂蚁的商品，它们饿死了。德国蚂蚁最终注销了借给蚱蜢的贷款。但它们从这种经历中几乎没有汲取教训，而是仍然向其它地区销售商品，以换取更多的债权。

Now, the German ant nest is very close to some small colonies of grasshoppers. German ants say: “We want to be friends. So why do we not all use the same money? But, first, you must promise to behave like ants forever.” So grasshoppers have to pass a test: behave like ants for a few years. The grasshoppers do so and are then allowed to adopt the European money.

Everyone lives happily, for a while. The German ants look at their loans to grasshoppers and feel rich. Meanwhile, in grasshopper colonies, their governments look at their healthy accounts and say: “Look, we are better at sticking to the fiscal rules than ants.” Ants find this embarrassing. So they say nothing about the fact that wages and prices are rising fast in grasshopper colonies, making their goods more expensive, while lowering the real burden of interest, so encouraging yet more borrowing and building.

Wise German ants insist, gloomily, that “trees do not grow to the sky”. Land prices finally peak in the grasshopper colonies. Ant banks duly become nervous and ask for their money back. So grasshopper debtors are forced to sell. This creates a chain of bankruptcy. It also halts construction in the grasshopper colonies and grasshopper spending on ant goods. Jobs disappear in both grasshopper colonies and ant nests and fiscal deficits soar, especially in grasshopper colonies.

German ants realise that their stores of wealth are not worth much since grasshoppers cannot provide them with anything they want, except for cheap houses in the sun. Ant banks either have to write off bad loans or they must persuade ant governments to give even more ant money to the grasshopper colonies. Ant governments are afraid to admit that they have allowed their banks to lose the ants’ money. So they prefer the latter course, called a “bail-out”. Meanwhile, they order the governments of the grasshoppers to raise taxes and slash spending. Now, they say, you must really behave like ants. So the grasshopper colonies go into a deep recession. But grasshoppers still cannot make anything ants want to buy, because they do not know how to do so. Since grasshoppers can no longer borrow, to buy goods from ants, they starve. The German ants finally write off their loans to grasshoppers. But, having learnt little from this experience, they sell their goods, in return for yet more debt, elsewhere.

碰巧，从全球范围看，还有其它蚁巢。尤其是亚洲，布满了这种蚁巢。与德国非常类似的富裕蚁巢是日本。还有一个巨大但较为贫穷的蚁巢是中国。这些蚁巢也希望通过向蚱蜢低价出售商品和积累蚱蜢窝的债权，而变得富裕起来。中国蚁巢甚至实行人民币汇率盯住制度，从而保证本国商品极其廉价。幸运的是，对亚洲人而言（或者看似如此），碰巧有一个非常巨大而且特别勤奋的蚱蜢窝——美国。的确，你知道美国是蚱蜢窝的唯一方式是它的格言：“我们信赖购物”。亚洲蚁巢与美国的关系类似于德国与其邻国的关系。亚洲蚂蚁积累了大量的蚱蜢窝债权，感觉很富有。

然而还是有一些差异。当美国爆发危机，家庭停止借贷和支出，财政赤字大幅飙升的时候，美国政府没有对自己说：“这是危险的；我们必须削减支出。”而是表示：“为了保持经济增长，我们必须更多地支出。”因此美国出现了巨额的财政赤字。

这让亚洲人感到不安。因此中国蚁巢的领导人告诉美国：“我们——你们的债权人——要求你们停止借钱，就像欧洲蚱蜢窝目前所做的那样。”美国蚱蜢窝的领导人大笑道：“我们从来没有让你们借给我们钱。实际上，我们曾告诉你们这是愚蠢的做法。我们将确保美国蚱蜢就业，如果你们不想借给我们钱，那就让你们的货币升值。这样我们将自行制造以前购买的商品，而你们不必再借给我们钱。”就这样，美国用一位已逝智者的名言给债权人上了一堂课：“如果你欠银行100美元，你会有麻烦；但如果你欠银行1亿美元，有麻烦的是银行。”

中国领导人不愿承认，自己蚁巢积累的巨额美国债权将低于成本价值。中国人还想继续为外国人制造廉价商品，因此中国最终决定购买更多的美国债权。但几十年后，中国人最终对美国人说：“现在我们愿意让你们用商品偿还债务。”于是，美国蚱蜢大笑着迅速削减债务价值。蚂蚁们的储蓄缩水，随后一些蚂蚁饿死了。
这则故事的寓意是什么？如果你希望积累长久的财富，就不要借钱给蚱蜢。

As it happens, in the wider world, there are other ant nests. Asia, in particular, is full of them. There is a rich nest, rather like Germany, called Japan. There is also a huge, but poorer, nest called China. These also want to become rich by selling goods to grasshoppers at low prices and building up claims on grasshopper colonies. The Chinese nest even fixes the foreign price of its currency at a level that guarantees the extreme cheapness of its goods. Fortunately, for the Asians, or so it seems, there happens to be a very big and exceptionally industrious grasshopper colony, called America. Indeed, the only way you would know it is a grasshopper colony is that its motto is: “In shopping we trust”. Asian nests develop a relationship with America similar to Germany’s with its neighbours. Asian ants build up piles of grasshopper debt and feel rich.

Yet there is a difference. When the crash comes to America and households stop borrowing and spending and the fiscal deficit explodes, the government does not say to itself: “This is dangerous; we must cut back spending.” Instead, it says: “We must spend even more, to keep the economy humming.” So the fiscal deficit becomes enormous.

This makes the Asians nervous. So the leader of China’s nest tells America: “We, your creditors, insist you stop borrowing, just as European grasshoppers are now doing.” The leader of the American colony laughs: “We did not ask you to lend us this money. In fact, we told you it was a folly. We are going to make sure American grasshoppers have jobs. If you do not want to lend us money, raise the price of your currency. Then we will make what we used to buy and you will no longer have to lend to us.” So America teaches creditors a lesson from a dead sage: “If you owe your bank $100, you have a problem; but if you owe $100m, it does.”

The Chinese leader does not want to admit that his nest’s huge pile of American debt is not going to be worth what it cost. Chinese people also want to go on making cheap goods for foreigners. So China decides to buy yet more American debt, after all. But, decades later, the Chinese finally say to the Americans: “Now we would like you to provide us with goods in return for your debt to us. Thereupon, the American grasshoppers laugh and promptly reduce the debt’s value. The ants lose the value off their savings and some of them then starve to death.

What is the moral of this fable? If you want to accumulate enduring wealth, do not lend to grasshoppers.

译者/君悦